Good News from Alabama

Last night, Alabama taught Democrats to never give up.

You may have heard by now that in a special election yesterday, Democrat Marilyn Lands flipped a seat in the Alabama House that had been held by a Republican. Her seat is in the Huntsville area in north Alabama.

Alabama’s legislature is held by a Republican supermajority, and Lands lost a race for the seat four years ago. But last night, she came out on top, winning the race with 63% of the vote to her opponent’s 37%, an impressive victory in a solidly red state. In the category of “you can’t make this up” the special election happened because David Cole, the Republican who previously held the seat, pled guilty to voter fraud charges when it came to light that he didn’t live in the district he voted in and represented.

Change is possible with hard work and a solid candidate. Lands ignored the prevailing wisdom that encourages blue candidates in red states to run as moderates or even as closet Republicans. Lands embraced a strong pro-choice commitment, connecting with voters who struggled with pregnancies, pregnancy loss, and fertility issues by sharing her own story. She had an abortion two decades ago because genetic testing revealed that her baby had Trisomy 13, a genetic disorder that was not survivable. She connected with her voters.

So what’s the takeaway?

We know that Democrats can win when abortion is on the ballot. We saw that in Kansas in 2022 and in Ohio, Kentucky, and other places the following year. But Alabama is a state that has decreed life begins at conception. Its Supreme Court recently ruled that IVF, which can result in the destruction of embryonic tissue, ran afoul of Alabama’s strict anti-abortion laws.

Lands won by arguing against a total abortion ban, supporting IVF, and making sure voters understood that birth control could be on the chopping block next if Alabama voters don’t put a stop to the madness. Alabama hasn’t had an overnight shift. The message is more subtle than that, but incredibly important. It’s that when Republicans go too far—and they have on this issue—Democrats can win, even in the most unlikely of places. Roe v. Wade was a compromise, one that gave both sides less than what they wanted but didn’t strip either side entirely of what it sought. Dobbs altered that balance and put the issue back on the table for women who had become complacent after fifty years of Roe. Last night proved that’s the case, even in Alabama. Democrats can run and win on the message that Republicans have gone too far.

State legislator and former Alabama Democratic Party Chair Chris England, who is from Tuscaloosa, gave me his assessment of Lands’ win. He told me, “It’s not a coincidence that during one of the more aggressive legislative sessions where Republicans are using their supermajority to force through solutions without problems on issues like DEI, taking over libraries, school vouchers, and restricting women’s rights to healthcare, that they lost a election by an extremely wide margin. It reflects a sentiment that there is a growing disconnect between Republican politics and most Americans that is playing itself out not only in parts of Alabama but across America.” Republicans have gone too far.

Marilyn Lands was a strong candidate with strong local backing. She lost in 2020 by about six points. Part of the message her victory in this election sends is that we have to stop thinking about just the next election; we have to stop viewing elections as one and done. They are, especially in red states, a process of building support for candidates and issues across as many elections as it takes. Lands could have given up. She didn’t, and she won.

This is a screenshot from the first email she sent out to Alabama voters. She understood that it was all about turnout, and she was willing to bet that Republicans would take their “safe” district for granted, while she got to work.

A win like this should give Democrats everywhere a shot in the arm. Democratic legislator Phillip Ensler, whose district is in Montgomery, Alabama, told me how Lands’ win was affecting other Democrats who are in and running for office: “Her victory and presence in our caucus gives many of us hope and a jolt of energy to keep fighting the good fight in our state.” That’s an awfully big deal in a state that doesn’t have a single statewide elected Democrat in office. We have to be willing to build support across multiple election.

Of course, demographics matter. Huntsville, Alabama is the home to Redstone Arsenal, the Army’s center for missile and rocket programs. It houses operations for Missile Defense Agency, NASA, and federal law enforcement operations for the FBI and ATF. Companies that work with the government in technology, space, and defense industries are present, including several Fortune 500 companies. That’s not a demographic that necessarily screams vote for the Democrat, although close to half of voters in the Huntsville area are college educated, compared to slightly more than 25% statewide. But Lands told voters that choices about healthcare should belong to individuals, not to the legislature. That’s an appealing message for anyone who has watched just how far afield Alabama’s legislature can get. And many traditional Republicans viewed the IVF ruling as evidence the state had gone too far. So yes, some of it was timing and luck and an educated pool of voters. But mostly it was about an important message—Americans, especially Republicans, don’t like it when government goes too far.

Still, this wasn’t a close race. It was a romp by a Democrat in the Republican heartland.

Now, Democrats have to build on what they’ve gained. This was a special election, and turnout was predictably low, about 14.5 %, according to the probate judge’s unofficial estimate. Lands will finish out the term of the legislator she is replacing and then stand for reelection in 2026. That means the governor and other statewide leaders will be on the ballot, and Lands will have to deal with the Alabama practice of “pulling the lever,” which permits voters to tick a box at the top of the ballot indicating they are voting “straight ticket” Republican. The challenge will be for Lands and other Democrats to continue to connect with the message that voters should select their representatives carefully in light of concerns that, with a supermajority in Alabama, Republicans have gone too far. Nothing is certain in politics, but there is certainly reason for optimism.

We’re in this together,

Joyce

P.S. Many thanks to those of you who, through your monthly and yearly subscriptions, are providing financial support for the work I do. It means a lot to me. If you’re not a paid subscriber and you’re enjoying Civil Discourse, I hope you’ll consider it. But we live in challenging times, and I understand that not everyone can or wants to buy a paid subscription and I’m happy to have you here either way!