I pray to God you are right. I am riddled with anxiety to the extent I am not watching ANY news coverage and I just glossed through this newsletter even knowing it is pro-Harris. How in the world have we gotten to a place where so many people believe in the disgusting charlatan that is tRump? I am signing out for the next week plus & going to concentrate on a festive Halloween with my adorable neighbor kids. :-)
I think it's the republicans' long term effort to destroy our democracy. If you make honesty irrelevant, along with doing what is right, someone like trump can survive politically.
I really doubt it. The young people have only their cell phones - no landlines - and certainly never answer calls from unknown sources - ie, pollsters. I think they are going to pull this out for Kamala.
I hope you are right! My granddaughter hasn't look at her text messages for a while, too many from trump and other MAGAs. It's the same for me. I got a yet another text message from trump asking me for money just as the MSG rally started, and I have never voted Repub! I long to respond with my true feelings, but the man at Apple told me to block every single number and put it in "Junk & Delete" which I do. If you respond they know you have seen it and will pull out even more stops to reach you. He said the only way to stop it is to refuse all texts that are not from people in my contacts! That's not always a good idea for me.
I don't know about other phones, but with my iPhone when I get a text like that, if I go to delete it, one of the choices is to delete and report junk. I would recommend doing that.
It is unlikely they are counting all newly registered DEMS and INDPNDTS; IDK the delay time between registering and being polled, but I can't imagine it is right after registering. That being said, the data analysis on new registrants shows more young people and women of color are registering, suggesting that there are more newly registered Harris supporters. History shows that new registrants are MUCH more likely to vote immediately than not vote (I mean, why go through the effort to register close to an election and then not vote).
About polling: Remember there are increasing numbers of Republican-leaning polls and junk polls that have flooded the polling zone since the debate making it appear that Harris is losing ground and he is gaining, which is simply not true when knowledgeable and reliable analysts like Tom Bonier of Target Smart and Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles analyze the date of valid/reliable/independent polls. MSM is going to milk this as a neck and neck horse race until the very end to generate clicks and sales. IMO, best to skip MSM and go with experienced, independent polling analysts.
They all try to predict who is likely to vote and they weight their results, each using its own formula. Like many of you, inthink we’ll have a lot more women turn out than predicted, and young people too, etc etc.
Most likely not. And there are numerous "fake" polls out there by the GOP that are intended to skew the averages and also give Trump his "facts" to try to show election fraud. I see a light at the end of the tunnel but the danger is not over yet.
As Michelle Obama said on Sunday in Kalamazoo, this is creating a women's health desert in many states. Medical students are not choosing to go into obstetrics residencies in states with abortion bans. this has long-term consequences for the care of women from birth to death.
@Axel Wolff. Gen Z have never voted previously and therefore are probably considered "unlikely" and uncounted by the polls. 25% of the electorate are Gen Z. Consider the Swifty, Beyonce, David Hogg effect. FT 6 says it has produced 5 million "new" voters ib swing states.
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans' organizations, historical sites. Vote vets has already flipped many 2016 and 2020 Trump voters. 3. It's up to people like you who are on social media.... when you comment you'll see what I mean. Many of the people involved are dependents, family members, friends and neighbors who are interested in the military and or national security and for whom this is news. Takes repetition and substantiation by people they trust.
Daniel they might be interested in the fact that NSL4A.org endorsed Harris. National Security Leaders for America is a group of retired diplomats, ambassadors, generals, admirals — high level security experts.
I hope you are right ... but that isn't happening with the Republican women I know. They are to a person voting their pocketbook - despite being "disgusted by Roe." Voting their pocketbook, when economists have said Trump's plan with wreck the economy.
Yup. My experience too. Why Trump isn't being nailed to the wall over his "economic plan" is astonishing to me. Well. So is everything else these days.
I want to believe what you say, but the reputations, maybe even the jobs, of the pollsters are on the line to get this correct. For sure the pollsters know about Roe v Wade. (And they know the Dem/Rep/Ind statistics on young people registering too). So most likely all of the above is baked into the frightening numbers we see. The good (?) news is that if they've made a systematic error in one state on these kinds of adjustments, then likely in all of them, so very easy to guess that the Rust Belt will in fact all tilt one way compared to the 50-50 polls. The bad news, of course, is that their systematic error could be an unfriendly one.
My favorite pollster (who I believe is the most accurate because he filters out low quality and right-wing + left wing polls) has the odds of Harris winning at 77%. Here's a link to him:
I met a 19 yr old young man when i was door canvassing this weekend who said he wasn’t going to vote on the presidential line because he didn’t like trump or Harris. He wouldn’t or couldn’t explain why he wouldn’t vote for Harris. So i said well, if you feel like you don’t know enough about her, let me show you her website. I had kamalaharris.com on my phone and i walked him through it so he could see how she clearly has substance there on so many issues. He was engaged and thanked me. He truly seemed grateful for the info.
Please try this when you are canvassing if you meet someone like this!
There are many reasons I expect people will not vote for Harris. Racism. Misogyny. Her support for Biden (who supports Israel). Her 10+ years as a prosecutor and Attorney General in California. If you don't see a vital need to make sure Trump is NOT elected I think it is easy to see why you might not want to support Harris. Personally I do so very reluctantly as she represents many things I do not like. But I fear another Trump Presidency more. So I will do the same thing I did in 2020 which is go into the voting booth, hold my nose and vote for Harris. But I am not thrilled about it at all.
In 1976, I made up my mind to vote for Carter as I was in the voting booth. Could I trust a Southerner? I just 'didn't know enough about him' On the other hand, I DID know about Jerry Ford. By 1980 I would have voted for Carter if he'd been running against George Washington.
In 2008, Barak Obama wasn't my first choice, but I voted for him anyway. McCain wasn't all that bad, but he had the support of people I didn't like. And then there was Sarah Palin. (And there was that reality TV guy who was trying to claim Obama wasn't really an American.) 4 years later, seeing what Obama was really like, not the view that had tricked down through the ultra conservation news sources in my area, seeing how he managed to get progressive legislation passed in the face of Mitch McConnell's obstructionism, I wholeheartedly voted for Obama.
In 2016, Mrs. Clinton was not my first choice, or my second or third choice for the Democratic nominee. Had she been running against someone like Mitt Romney, I might have had to think a bit before voting.
2020 was a repeat of 2016. Biden was far from my first choice for Democratic nominee. But the alternative was unthinkable. Had Biden run again in 2024, I would have voted for him without reservation.
Yes there are things about Harris I don't care for, but the more I see of her, the more I like - and the less important the things I don't like become.
I expect that by 2028 I'll have come to like Harris as much as I like Obama, to respect her as much as I respect Joe Biden. (But I probably won't love her as much as I love Jimmy Carter.)
I happily read every word you wrote, Shirley. I loved Jimmy Carter then and still love Jimmy Carter. When people talk about " being a man" they should look at him and his life.
I certainly agree with this. I've been alive since 1951 and I believe Carter is the best President we've had in that time. Certainly the most honest and honorable. It's pretty astounding when you compare him to LBJ, Nixon, Reagan, even JFK and it goes without saying Trump. Carter should go down in history as one of the best Presidents. Sadly he won't.
Reagan has always made me want to throw up. I was still in CA when he was governor. JFK was a womanizer, which says to me that he was probably a misogynist. I, too, appreciate - have always appreciated- Carter's honesty and honor. I agree that he should go down as one of the best presidents in our history. BTW, I've been around since 1945 and Carter is the best president so far of my lifetime. I need to add that I also appreciate the ground-breaking that President Obama did. I know he had a lot working against him, but I still think he's wonderful.
I received a Monday Morning 10/28 Email from Marc Elias/ Democracy Docket, the go-to source for Pre, during & Post election litigation which is already intense.
Democracy Docket's annual subscription cost is expensive but, the Platform has a current $20-off Offer of $100 cost for their annual subscription.
I climbed aboard the good ship Democracy Docket which is steady in heavy headwinds.
Bryan, I get Marc’s emails and have been following him for a long time. So happy that his growing law firm has associated itself with Kamala’s attorneys. Together, they will bring justice to the table and I am so here for that!
I’m not sure which speaker at TFGs Nazi rally said it, but it was “if you don’t support Trump you should be slaughtered.” WTAF is happening to this country?
All of it is to distract from voting and encouraging others to vote. In other words, it's all to make you stop focusing on the one thing that everyone can do, VOTE
Yes, it is a distraction, but what is his red line to cross? Does he even have one? I’ve read Mary’s books and there doesn’t seem to be a line - ever in his entire life. I voted almost two weeks ago and stood there shaking while reading the ballot. It’s scary shit.
It's scarey and we have to act effectively through our fear. If you can help with a campaign do that. If you can help as apoll watcher, do that. We can all help by offering others information in conversation and rides to polling places. It will always be scarey. Let your anger make you less scared. I'm right there with you on torn feelings and not knowing how to fix it. Doing all each of us can do is the answer. Us staying scared is their aim. Don't let them win that battle.
Like it or not the SCOTUS will get these cases in the end. What they do then is uncertain but I agree it isn't likely to be ideal. Ib think it will depend on the overall popular vote turnout for Harris v Trump as well as the electoral college vote based on the states counting. Bush v Gore 2000 was focused on one state and that was incredibly close less than 1000 total votes in Florida. I expect this election will not be that close. But i have no idea which way it will go.
If Harris gets well over 270 electoral college votes, she should just have the election. Period. Nothing to argue about if she does, because state certifications go through a lot of hoops to get to their conclusions.
My point is that I do not see Harris getting "well over 270" electoral votes. I think she will be very lucky to get just 270 which is a paper thin victory. And I think she has a good chance of losing.
I hope you are wrong that she has a good chance of losing, although I do understand that she is going against great odds, with the way the MSM and the magats have been treating her. That said, she has been reaching out to young voters. The one group she has not reached out to is Palestinians, and I do thing that is a mistake.
I have family members I'd like to send this to. But, when they are so obtuse and oblivious that they bought into Vance with, " he had me at Semper Fi", what could possibly make them see the truth and danger and evilness of the Trump regime? I'm 78 years old, marched for civil and women's rights in the 60s and 70s. I could never have dreamed we would be here now - fighting Hitler and depravity again. God help us all.
I wish I shared you optimism. I see zero evidence or proof of your first notion, that Harris is doing BETTER than Biden with Republican voters. If you have evidence of this you should reference it. The polls I look at show Harris roughly 4 points behind Bidens position 10 days before the election and that seems to be across the board.
Polls?? From what I've seen of the questions asked and the very small number of people who do answer? Plus who knows if they are truthful? Not a believer of "polls". Just another way to keep everyone jacked up & watching the "news".
Then how do you explain the amazing accuracy of the polls in picking the winners of our elections? You don't believe in polls? I don't believe in fairies because they don't exist. I believe in polls because they do exist and have a remarkable track record for being correct. You can ignore that truth at your peril but it seems silly to do so. Polls HAVE been wrong. But as they say, that's still the best way to bet.
I never said to vote in response to polls. If anything I urge people to vote not following the polls but in reaction to them! Vote your conscience of course. But that doesn't in any way discount how accurate they have been. Not believing in polls is folly. That like people who say they don't believe the universe is 15 billion years old because "that's just science and I believe in the Bible". Well the Bible is nonsense and science is not. Polls aren't nonsense either. They have historically been highly accurate. And yes they have on occasion been wrong.
But like I said - whats the point? Too many people ARE voting in reaction to them - not just us, but magats.
Sorry Jon, but polls mean nothing to me. Actually, come to think of it, neither do fairies (your former comment). As long as we all vote and understand what we are voting FOR - thats what matters - to me, at least.
Yes, America’s “Greatest Generation” didn’t fall into the trap … but Germany’s (and Italy’s) did.
Surely I am not the only one to have living memories of concentration camp survivors (and their tattoos) and Red Scare survivors (no tattoos)—I hope not to be a survivor of Trump.
And if so, as I am a Jew, perhaps from a camp in Texas or Florida or (thanks MTG!) Georgia.
David, I, too, am Jewish and remember watching movies at camp about the Holocaust. My Mother also taught us about it, but I didn’t understand as a young child. I did my own reading and have visited Yad Vashem at least 3 times, possibly 4 and it was a jaw-dropping and very sad experience every time. I have also visited the Holocaust Museum in Washington DC twice and the smaller museum in Houston, TX numerous times. It is a horror show every time. I still have a hard time believing that we are facing this in 2024. Even worse, both of my brothers and their wives are now 3 time drumpf voters. They know better, but are motivated by money which really sucks in my opinion. drumpf is telling us what he plans to do. I am listening. I hope the majority of Jewish Americans are listening, too.
I think you are wrong. I expect 50% of the voting Jewish population to support Trump. We are just as split s the rest of the nation and everyone knows Harris is not a strong supporter of Israel despite having a Jewish husband. Personally as a Jew myself (albeit atheist) I don't support Israel at least not under Netanyahu so it is one of the things Harris does that I would support if she was more open about it. But she had mostly done a strategy of "hedge all your bets" in this election and that is what I detest about her and her campaign. It may be the best way to get elected but it doesn't engender strong supportive response from people who actually care about what she stands for.
There is more to being a Jew than supporting Israel.
One of the guiding principals of Judaism is ‘tikkun olam’, to heal the world. No Jew, who subscribes to tikkun olam, could possibly support Big Orange. He’s not about healing the world, taking care of the poor, the sick, the less fortunate. He’s about himself.
How is doing x,y,z going to benefit ME?
I am an observant Jew and I sat through several sermons during the recent High Holy Days. Believe me when I say that nowhere near 50% of Jews will vote for him. Especially not when he says things like if he loses, blame the Jews.
Haven’t we had enough of that crap throughout our history?
Well we disagree on that. The polls show almost 50% of people identifying as Jewish supporting Trump. I hope they are wrong. Sad for sure but probably about right. In that vein explain Stephen Miller. He is devout, Jewish and one of Trump's biggest allies. I think you are very misled by your own feelings about Jews, your people (and my people) almost half of whom are willing to support a fascist.
I went to high school with Steven Miller's mother and I know her side of the family well. I am in touch with her brothers (his uncles) and they've denounced him publicly. He is not devout, his family consider him a shonda and an embarassment.
Something in Steven broke when his family lost their money when he was in high school in Santa Monica. They went from living in a nice house to living in a small apartment and he blamed just about everyone else for his father's failure as a landlord. He went very dark, began to turn away from his old friends, some of whom were Latino, and went far right.
I was raised Orthodox, most of my family still are. A good portion of them support Trump, feeling that he's 'good for Israel'. The Orthodox are a small portion of American Jews. Trump has his 25% or so support among Jews. But that's all it is. Will never be more than that.
As for Steven Miller, he will eventually be bitten by this snake. He's like one of the sonderkommandos in the camps. Working for them won't save him in the end. Eventually, they'll come for him, too.
I never thought leopards would eat MY face. Well guess what? Leopard's hungry.
Remember - she still is only the vice president - do you really expect her to stand up and state how differently she feels at this time? No candidate (other than the dumpster) would be willing to do that as a member of the current administration. Even if she wins, January 20th is a few months from now and Biden is president until then. The Israel/Palestine issue is a HUGE one right now. I wish HE (as president) would make changes. But its still up to him.
Thank you for saying that, Maggie. As vice-president she has to walk a fine line in what she says. Despite my Jewish heritage I cannot support Israel under Netanyahu. I have visited the country several times and enjoyed it, but these days nothing could get me to go back. I want to see the Palestinians (non-Hamas) treated humanely.
Yes, "detest". I choose my words carefully, rarely use the wrong one. I am no Harris "fan boy". I have lived in California throughout her rise as both District Attorney and AG. I really can't stand many of her policies particularly as a "tough on crime" DA. She has always been cagy about what she actually believes and it's something i do not like in a politician. All that said I have still supported her most of the time because the alternatives were far worse. In politics I believe that perfection is the enemy of acceptability. Would I have chosen Harris To run for President? Hell no. But she is what we have been given and she is still so much better than the alternative. But I stand by the word detest.
Jon, I'm thinking that the campaign is not necessarily who she would be as president. Since she is currently vice president, it would be wrong of her to clearly go against the president she serves with. I personally don't see that as being cagey. I have read her book, and what I get from that is is person who has very specific beliefs. And what I've heard in her stump speeches is consistent with what I read. We will have to wait until she is actually president to see what she does about Israel and the Palestinians.
I understand what you're saying. Aside from all the gibbledeegook horrific statements, their main push is to distract with outrage or exhaustion or ANY DAMNED THING AT ALL. Let's not take the bait. Let's continue to plan our votes and keep talking to those who are undecided, as well as helping friends or family or neighbors actually get to the polls. Straight ahead, not wavering, don't stop for the tidbits they drop. It's all meaningless when we are resolute, unafraid, and VOTE.
I am half Jewish, and one of my vivid memories from childhood was the lady who worked at my local Baskin-Robbins, who had a number tattooed on her arm. My parents had to explain it to me, but even though that was probably in the late 1950s, it's a memory that has never left me. I have also never forgotten that my father died a very bitter man because 38 of his close relatives died in concentration camps.
Thanks, Joyce. It's going to be difficult to sleep for the next couple of weeks. The Madison Square Gardens event, the echo of it, is chilling. But we still have work to do in the week ahead, and I am grateful for all of the activists who are organizing, so we can continue to show up to talk to voters.
The thing about Michelle Obama's speech in Kalamazoo (a bit off topic per your post) was the point she made about the choice being between supporting women or supporting T (and the desecration of our Constitution). It is appalling how many people seem to prefer destroying our own country, and referring to it as a garbage can, instead of supporting Harris and the rule of law and common decency. I just can't take that in. I hope the polls are wrong about this being a 'close' race. The crowds at the Harris rallies are what give me hope. But the fact that it's come to this choice, that it's even possible for some of us to have fallen so low, that disturbs me. And that is something we'll have to deal with if and when we win.
The key fact here is that the MAGATs are not dealing with the full spectrum of facts. Their 'information' sources have not told them of what we know.
They don't know the shooter in Butler was a registered repub. They have been programmed to believe the 1/6 indictments are "just more Dem efforts to attack Dear Leader", as are the stolen documents cases and the other two. (Business fraud, New York, and Fulton County election interference.)
And so on.
That's how they can support this neo-Hitler, they are trying to navigate L.A. using a map of Chicago. They can't figure out why the streets don't match up.
I missed Michelle's speech in Kamalazoo, but Morning Joe just showed clips from it. And it was stellar. I had seen Kamala's speech, but this was, dare I say it, even better. Her call to action for men has got to be broadcast more often, on as many media as it can be. And I have a few (former) friends who are going to hear from me: I will not brook their support of the evil that Kamala's opponent brings.
There is no one who is a better inspirational speaker than Michelle Obama. She is amazing and since we see Michelle so infrequently- her voice resonates with us so much. I’m glad she is on our team!!!
She also covered a whole lot regarding women and their health than I've heard from anyone else! It was a really really great speech. Shes one tough cookie - especially after the way she was treated by naysayers during Obama's administrations.
Thanks Joyce! I am feeling so anxious and a bit depressed! It just scares me to think 50% of people in our nation are willing to vote for Trump. I am a 74 year old woman and just can’t believe this is happening in our country. Yes, I will continue to make phone calls, I have made more donations than I can afford, I have signs out front and have already voted. What more can I do? I just hope for a positive outcome!
Great point but what good does it do? In the end they will make the final decision. Remember 2000? They basically took a vote for Gore and singlehandedly reversed it. I expect they will at least try to do the same thing this election.
I gotta add, I sincerely believe both polls and analysts underestimate the enormous impact Roe Wade will have.
People say it's a tossup but...
37 million+ women voted Trump in 2020
Statistics show 40% of Republican women are pro-choice.
To be a bit reductive - that is almost 15 million women out of that voting block.
So when I say Roe V Wade will have a negative impact on Trump... this is what I mean
I pray to God you are right. I am riddled with anxiety to the extent I am not watching ANY news coverage and I just glossed through this newsletter even knowing it is pro-Harris. How in the world have we gotten to a place where so many people believe in the disgusting charlatan that is tRump? I am signing out for the next week plus & going to concentrate on a festive Halloween with my adorable neighbor kids. :-)
Good to take care of yourself. It's ugly right now and likely going to get much worse before it gets better. I do believe we will prevail. Be well. 💙💙
I think it's the republicans' long term effort to destroy our democracy. If you make honesty irrelevant, along with doing what is right, someone like trump can survive politically.
I hope you are right and this is no time for us to count any chickens other than Joyce's.
I wonder if the polls are taking into consideration the newly registered young people voting for the first time?
I really doubt it. The young people have only their cell phones - no landlines - and certainly never answer calls from unknown sources - ie, pollsters. I think they are going to pull this out for Kamala.
I hope you are right! My granddaughter hasn't look at her text messages for a while, too many from trump and other MAGAs. It's the same for me. I got a yet another text message from trump asking me for money just as the MSG rally started, and I have never voted Repub! I long to respond with my true feelings, but the man at Apple told me to block every single number and put it in "Junk & Delete" which I do. If you respond they know you have seen it and will pull out even more stops to reach you. He said the only way to stop it is to refuse all texts that are not from people in my contacts! That's not always a good idea for me.
I don't know about other phones, but with my iPhone when I get a text like that, if I go to delete it, one of the choices is to delete and report junk. I would recommend doing that.
"or else"??? Save those texts and call your local FBI office. Not kidding.
I have been registered to vote for over 50 years and have never been polled on anything. Just lucky I guess.
I hope you're right!
I got a text poll once.
It is unlikely they are counting all newly registered DEMS and INDPNDTS; IDK the delay time between registering and being polled, but I can't imagine it is right after registering. That being said, the data analysis on new registrants shows more young people and women of color are registering, suggesting that there are more newly registered Harris supporters. History shows that new registrants are MUCH more likely to vote immediately than not vote (I mean, why go through the effort to register close to an election and then not vote).
About polling: Remember there are increasing numbers of Republican-leaning polls and junk polls that have flooded the polling zone since the debate making it appear that Harris is losing ground and he is gaining, which is simply not true when knowledgeable and reliable analysts like Tom Bonier of Target Smart and Simon Rosenberg of Hopium Chronicles analyze the date of valid/reliable/independent polls. MSM is going to milk this as a neck and neck horse race until the very end to generate clicks and sales. IMO, best to skip MSM and go with experienced, independent polling analysts.
They all try to predict who is likely to vote and they weight their results, each using its own formula. Like many of you, inthink we’ll have a lot more women turn out than predicted, and young people too, etc etc.
Most likely not. And there are numerous "fake" polls out there by the GOP that are intended to skew the averages and also give Trump his "facts" to try to show election fraud. I see a light at the end of the tunnel but the danger is not over yet.
I desperately hope you are correct ( I avoid using right!)
hahahahahah
Reproductive freedom for everyone is on the ballot in AZ. THAT COULD CARRY OVER SOME MOMENTUM 4 OTHER KEY RACES.
Women's health is on the ballot!
As Michelle Obama said on Sunday in Kalamazoo, this is creating a women's health desert in many states. Medical students are not choosing to go into obstetrics residencies in states with abortion bans. this has long-term consequences for the care of women from birth to death.
@Axel Wolff. Gen Z have never voted previously and therefore are probably considered "unlikely" and uncounted by the polls. 25% of the electorate are Gen Z. Consider the Swifty, Beyonce, David Hogg effect. FT 6 says it has produced 5 million "new" voters ib swing states.
REPRISE: 1. Uncle Sam needs you! https://www.mobilize.us/ (And me.)
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans' organizations, historical sites. Vote vets has already flipped many 2016 and 2020 Trump voters. 3. It's up to people like you who are on social media.... when you comment you'll see what I mean. Many of the people involved are dependents, family members, friends and neighbors who are interested in the military and or national security and for whom this is news. Takes repetition and substantiation by people they trust.
Daniel they might be interested in the fact that NSL4A.org endorsed Harris. National Security Leaders for America is a group of retired diplomats, ambassadors, generals, admirals — high level security experts.
Please tell them.....
I hope you are right ... but that isn't happening with the Republican women I know. They are to a person voting their pocketbook - despite being "disgusted by Roe." Voting their pocketbook, when economists have said Trump's plan with wreck the economy.
Yup. My experience too. Why Trump isn't being nailed to the wall over his "economic plan" is astonishing to me. Well. So is everything else these days.
I want to believe what you say, but the reputations, maybe even the jobs, of the pollsters are on the line to get this correct. For sure the pollsters know about Roe v Wade. (And they know the Dem/Rep/Ind statistics on young people registering too). So most likely all of the above is baked into the frightening numbers we see. The good (?) news is that if they've made a systematic error in one state on these kinds of adjustments, then likely in all of them, so very easy to guess that the Rust Belt will in fact all tilt one way compared to the 50-50 polls. The bad news, of course, is that their systematic error could be an unfriendly one.
My favorite pollster (who I believe is the most accurate because he filters out low quality and right-wing + left wing polls) has the odds of Harris winning at 77%. Here's a link to him:
https://www.threads.net/@nevbear1/post/DBkZ6x-OlfQ
There are A LOT of right-wing pollsters flooding the polls atm to make the election seem like it's more in Trump's favor
I like his numbers!
I mostly follow Nate Silver and Nate Cohn.
Fyi Nate Silver is funded by Peter Thiel - a right wing billionaire who supports Trump..
I'd prefer not to have the Thiel -> Polymarket -> Silver connection. Thiel is a nutcase. Seven pillars of Christianity and all that nonsense.
Agree.
I met a 19 yr old young man when i was door canvassing this weekend who said he wasn’t going to vote on the presidential line because he didn’t like trump or Harris. He wouldn’t or couldn’t explain why he wouldn’t vote for Harris. So i said well, if you feel like you don’t know enough about her, let me show you her website. I had kamalaharris.com on my phone and i walked him through it so he could see how she clearly has substance there on so many issues. He was engaged and thanked me. He truly seemed grateful for the info.
Please try this when you are canvassing if you meet someone like this!
There are many reasons I expect people will not vote for Harris. Racism. Misogyny. Her support for Biden (who supports Israel). Her 10+ years as a prosecutor and Attorney General in California. If you don't see a vital need to make sure Trump is NOT elected I think it is easy to see why you might not want to support Harris. Personally I do so very reluctantly as she represents many things I do not like. But I fear another Trump Presidency more. So I will do the same thing I did in 2020 which is go into the voting booth, hold my nose and vote for Harris. But I am not thrilled about it at all.
In 1976, I made up my mind to vote for Carter as I was in the voting booth. Could I trust a Southerner? I just 'didn't know enough about him' On the other hand, I DID know about Jerry Ford. By 1980 I would have voted for Carter if he'd been running against George Washington.
In 2008, Barak Obama wasn't my first choice, but I voted for him anyway. McCain wasn't all that bad, but he had the support of people I didn't like. And then there was Sarah Palin. (And there was that reality TV guy who was trying to claim Obama wasn't really an American.) 4 years later, seeing what Obama was really like, not the view that had tricked down through the ultra conservation news sources in my area, seeing how he managed to get progressive legislation passed in the face of Mitch McConnell's obstructionism, I wholeheartedly voted for Obama.
In 2016, Mrs. Clinton was not my first choice, or my second or third choice for the Democratic nominee. Had she been running against someone like Mitt Romney, I might have had to think a bit before voting.
2020 was a repeat of 2016. Biden was far from my first choice for Democratic nominee. But the alternative was unthinkable. Had Biden run again in 2024, I would have voted for him without reservation.
Yes there are things about Harris I don't care for, but the more I see of her, the more I like - and the less important the things I don't like become.
I expect that by 2028 I'll have come to like Harris as much as I like Obama, to respect her as much as I respect Joe Biden. (But I probably won't love her as much as I love Jimmy Carter.)
I happily read every word you wrote, Shirley. I loved Jimmy Carter then and still love Jimmy Carter. When people talk about " being a man" they should look at him and his life.
I couldn't agree with you more, Rick. Jimmy Carter is one of the most amazing men our country has ever produced.
I certainly agree with this. I've been alive since 1951 and I believe Carter is the best President we've had in that time. Certainly the most honest and honorable. It's pretty astounding when you compare him to LBJ, Nixon, Reagan, even JFK and it goes without saying Trump. Carter should go down in history as one of the best Presidents. Sadly he won't.
Reagan has always made me want to throw up. I was still in CA when he was governor. JFK was a womanizer, which says to me that he was probably a misogynist. I, too, appreciate - have always appreciated- Carter's honesty and honor. I agree that he should go down as one of the best presidents in our history. BTW, I've been around since 1945 and Carter is the best president so far of my lifetime. I need to add that I also appreciate the ground-breaking that President Obama did. I know he had a lot working against him, but I still think he's wonderful.
Thank you Joyce, for everything you’ve done this election year. You’ve been a voice of sanity in an insane world.
There is a Democracy Docket Zoom tomorrow 10/28 at 7:00 PM Eastern. Stacey Abrams, Marc Elias & Voto Latino President, Maria Teresa Kumar.
Must Register for Webinar ID # 8791921 6107.
Yes, I am going to try and go to that. P
Marlene.
I received a Monday Morning 10/28 Email from Marc Elias/ Democracy Docket, the go-to source for Pre, during & Post election litigation which is already intense.
Democracy Docket's annual subscription cost is expensive but, the Platform has a current $20-off Offer of $100 cost for their annual subscription.
I climbed aboard the good ship Democracy Docket which is steady in heavy headwinds.
Bryan, I get Marc’s emails and have been following him for a long time. So happy that his growing law firm has associated itself with Kamala’s attorneys. Together, they will bring justice to the table and I am so here for that!
I'll be there
I’m not sure which speaker at TFGs Nazi rally said it, but it was “if you don’t support Trump you should be slaughtered.” WTAF is happening to this country?
All of it is to distract from voting and encouraging others to vote. In other words, it's all to make you stop focusing on the one thing that everyone can do, VOTE
Yes, it is a distraction, but what is his red line to cross? Does he even have one? I’ve read Mary’s books and there doesn’t seem to be a line - ever in his entire life. I voted almost two weeks ago and stood there shaking while reading the ballot. It’s scary shit.
It's scarey and we have to act effectively through our fear. If you can help with a campaign do that. If you can help as apoll watcher, do that. We can all help by offering others information in conversation and rides to polling places. It will always be scarey. Let your anger make you less scared. I'm right there with you on torn feelings and not knowing how to fix it. Doing all each of us can do is the answer. Us staying scared is their aim. Don't let them win that battle.
Omg
SCOTUS seems to have a lot to learn from Judge Chutkan.
SCOTUS is waiting for a BUSH REPEAT. I don't want this decision anywhere near SCOTUS. They'll hand it to him.
Like it or not the SCOTUS will get these cases in the end. What they do then is uncertain but I agree it isn't likely to be ideal. Ib think it will depend on the overall popular vote turnout for Harris v Trump as well as the electoral college vote based on the states counting. Bush v Gore 2000 was focused on one state and that was incredibly close less than 1000 total votes in Florida. I expect this election will not be that close. But i have no idea which way it will go.
Nah
If Harris gets well over 270 electoral college votes, she should just have the election. Period. Nothing to argue about if she does, because state certifications go through a lot of hoops to get to their conclusions.
My point is that I do not see Harris getting "well over 270" electoral votes. I think she will be very lucky to get just 270 which is a paper thin victory. And I think she has a good chance of losing.
I hope you are wrong that she has a good chance of losing, although I do understand that she is going against great odds, with the way the MSM and the magats have been treating her. That said, she has been reaching out to young voters. The one group she has not reached out to is Palestinians, and I do thing that is a mistake.
and from the constitution.....
and from the constitution......
I have family members I'd like to send this to. But, when they are so obtuse and oblivious that they bought into Vance with, " he had me at Semper Fi", what could possibly make them see the truth and danger and evilness of the Trump regime? I'm 78 years old, marched for civil and women's rights in the 60s and 70s. I could never have dreamed we would be here now - fighting Hitler and depravity again. God help us all.
I also believe this is worth considering - The only reason I am not bristling with positivity is because of my 2016 ptsd but...
1. Harris fares better among Republicans than Biden (who won).
2. Harris motivates young people and young women in particular much better than Biden (who won)
3. Roe Wade + Jan 6th are both dealbreakers and Biden won without them.
4. Dems are - as far as I can see - working harder than ever before. I've never seen a group as hellbent on victory as the Dems right now.
5. Tim Walz >>> Tim Kaine for every reason
Moral of the story: Take the threat of Trump more seriously than ever but also, I believe we have reason to be optimistic and hopeful
I wish I shared you optimism. I see zero evidence or proof of your first notion, that Harris is doing BETTER than Biden with Republican voters. If you have evidence of this you should reference it. The polls I look at show Harris roughly 4 points behind Bidens position 10 days before the election and that seems to be across the board.
Liz Cheney herself said that millions of republicans would vote for Harris but not say so publicly
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13985027/amp/liz-cheney-millions-republicans-admit-vote-harris.html
I agree...repubes know that until trump is gone, their position and power in the party is also.
I would also add what I wrote in another thread.
37 million+ women voted Trump in 2020
Statistics show 40% of Republican women are pro-choice.
To be a bit reductive - that is almost 15 million women out of that voting block.
So when I argue Roe V Wade will have a negative impact on Trump with regard to republicans this is also what I mean!
Polls?? From what I've seen of the questions asked and the very small number of people who do answer? Plus who knows if they are truthful? Not a believer of "polls". Just another way to keep everyone jacked up & watching the "news".
Then how do you explain the amazing accuracy of the polls in picking the winners of our elections? You don't believe in polls? I don't believe in fairies because they don't exist. I believe in polls because they do exist and have a remarkable track record for being correct. You can ignore that truth at your peril but it seems silly to do so. Polls HAVE been wrong. But as they say, that's still the best way to bet.
I dont vote in response to polls - whether they are "correct" or not.
So what would be the point? These are other people's opinions. Questions that I wouldnt ask or answer - I use my voice/vote!
I never said to vote in response to polls. If anything I urge people to vote not following the polls but in reaction to them! Vote your conscience of course. But that doesn't in any way discount how accurate they have been. Not believing in polls is folly. That like people who say they don't believe the universe is 15 billion years old because "that's just science and I believe in the Bible". Well the Bible is nonsense and science is not. Polls aren't nonsense either. They have historically been highly accurate. And yes they have on occasion been wrong.
But like I said - whats the point? Too many people ARE voting in reaction to them - not just us, but magats.
Sorry Jon, but polls mean nothing to me. Actually, come to think of it, neither do fairies (your former comment). As long as we all vote and understand what we are voting FOR - thats what matters - to me, at least.
Please V O T E— it’s how Your Voice Matters!
Trump mimicked the Nazi rally, but Dr Seuss knew better. Some of Seuss' anti-fascist cartoons from WWII here: https://forgottenfiles.substack.com/p/seusss-satirical-war-on-fascism
Thank you.
Yes, America’s “Greatest Generation” didn’t fall into the trap … but Germany’s (and Italy’s) did.
Surely I am not the only one to have living memories of concentration camp survivors (and their tattoos) and Red Scare survivors (no tattoos)—I hope not to be a survivor of Trump.
And if so, as I am a Jew, perhaps from a camp in Texas or Florida or (thanks MTG!) Georgia.
David, I, too, am Jewish and remember watching movies at camp about the Holocaust. My Mother also taught us about it, but I didn’t understand as a young child. I did my own reading and have visited Yad Vashem at least 3 times, possibly 4 and it was a jaw-dropping and very sad experience every time. I have also visited the Holocaust Museum in Washington DC twice and the smaller museum in Houston, TX numerous times. It is a horror show every time. I still have a hard time believing that we are facing this in 2024. Even worse, both of my brothers and their wives are now 3 time drumpf voters. They know better, but are motivated by money which really sucks in my opinion. drumpf is telling us what he plans to do. I am listening. I hope the majority of Jewish Americans are listening, too.
I think most Jews, in fact over 70%, will not vote for him. However, we are only 2% of the population.
I think you are wrong. I expect 50% of the voting Jewish population to support Trump. We are just as split s the rest of the nation and everyone knows Harris is not a strong supporter of Israel despite having a Jewish husband. Personally as a Jew myself (albeit atheist) I don't support Israel at least not under Netanyahu so it is one of the things Harris does that I would support if she was more open about it. But she had mostly done a strategy of "hedge all your bets" in this election and that is what I detest about her and her campaign. It may be the best way to get elected but it doesn't engender strong supportive response from people who actually care about what she stands for.
There is more to being a Jew than supporting Israel.
One of the guiding principals of Judaism is ‘tikkun olam’, to heal the world. No Jew, who subscribes to tikkun olam, could possibly support Big Orange. He’s not about healing the world, taking care of the poor, the sick, the less fortunate. He’s about himself.
How is doing x,y,z going to benefit ME?
I am an observant Jew and I sat through several sermons during the recent High Holy Days. Believe me when I say that nowhere near 50% of Jews will vote for him. Especially not when he says things like if he loses, blame the Jews.
Haven’t we had enough of that crap throughout our history?
Well we disagree on that. The polls show almost 50% of people identifying as Jewish supporting Trump. I hope they are wrong. Sad for sure but probably about right. In that vein explain Stephen Miller. He is devout, Jewish and one of Trump's biggest allies. I think you are very misled by your own feelings about Jews, your people (and my people) almost half of whom are willing to support a fascist.
It boggles the mind but it is seemingly true.
I went to high school with Steven Miller's mother and I know her side of the family well. I am in touch with her brothers (his uncles) and they've denounced him publicly. He is not devout, his family consider him a shonda and an embarassment.
Something in Steven broke when his family lost their money when he was in high school in Santa Monica. They went from living in a nice house to living in a small apartment and he blamed just about everyone else for his father's failure as a landlord. He went very dark, began to turn away from his old friends, some of whom were Latino, and went far right.
I was raised Orthodox, most of my family still are. A good portion of them support Trump, feeling that he's 'good for Israel'. The Orthodox are a small portion of American Jews. Trump has his 25% or so support among Jews. But that's all it is. Will never be more than that.
As for Steven Miller, he will eventually be bitten by this snake. He's like one of the sonderkommandos in the camps. Working for them won't save him in the end. Eventually, they'll come for him, too.
I never thought leopards would eat MY face. Well guess what? Leopard's hungry.
Remember - she still is only the vice president - do you really expect her to stand up and state how differently she feels at this time? No candidate (other than the dumpster) would be willing to do that as a member of the current administration. Even if she wins, January 20th is a few months from now and Biden is president until then. The Israel/Palestine issue is a HUGE one right now. I wish HE (as president) would make changes. But its still up to him.
Thank you for saying that, Maggie. As vice-president she has to walk a fine line in what she says. Despite my Jewish heritage I cannot support Israel under Netanyahu. I have visited the country several times and enjoyed it, but these days nothing could get me to go back. I want to see the Palestinians (non-Hamas) treated humanely.
I'm sure many Jews feel that way - likely the ones living in Israel, too. Sounds like they are in a position somewhat like we would be if tffg wins!
Hahaha
Detest?
Yes, "detest". I choose my words carefully, rarely use the wrong one. I am no Harris "fan boy". I have lived in California throughout her rise as both District Attorney and AG. I really can't stand many of her policies particularly as a "tough on crime" DA. She has always been cagy about what she actually believes and it's something i do not like in a politician. All that said I have still supported her most of the time because the alternatives were far worse. In politics I believe that perfection is the enemy of acceptability. Would I have chosen Harris To run for President? Hell no. But she is what we have been given and she is still so much better than the alternative. But I stand by the word detest.
Jon, I'm thinking that the campaign is not necessarily who she would be as president. Since she is currently vice president, it would be wrong of her to clearly go against the president she serves with. I personally don't see that as being cagey. I have read her book, and what I get from that is is person who has very specific beliefs. And what I've heard in her stump speeches is consistent with what I read. We will have to wait until she is actually president to see what she does about Israel and the Palestinians.
I understand what you're saying. Aside from all the gibbledeegook horrific statements, their main push is to distract with outrage or exhaustion or ANY DAMNED THING AT ALL. Let's not take the bait. Let's continue to plan our votes and keep talking to those who are undecided, as well as helping friends or family or neighbors actually get to the polls. Straight ahead, not wavering, don't stop for the tidbits they drop. It's all meaningless when we are resolute, unafraid, and VOTE.
Admire your optimism. And yes, I have already voted.
I did too, 13 days ago. It gets somewhat tiresome to be repeatedly reminded to do what you already did 2 weeks ago. ;-)
Though I realize the plea is for others than us.
I am tiresome in a lot more ways. Pass on by
Indeed … and I hope they listen.
I too admire your optimism but have little faith that it will bear fruit. I hope I am wrong.
I am half Jewish, and one of my vivid memories from childhood was the lady who worked at my local Baskin-Robbins, who had a number tattooed on her arm. My parents had to explain it to me, but even though that was probably in the late 1950s, it's a memory that has never left me. I have also never forgotten that my father died a very bitter man because 38 of his close relatives died in concentration camps.
Thanks, Joyce. It's going to be difficult to sleep for the next couple of weeks. The Madison Square Gardens event, the echo of it, is chilling. But we still have work to do in the week ahead, and I am grateful for all of the activists who are organizing, so we can continue to show up to talk to voters.
The thing about Michelle Obama's speech in Kalamazoo (a bit off topic per your post) was the point she made about the choice being between supporting women or supporting T (and the desecration of our Constitution). It is appalling how many people seem to prefer destroying our own country, and referring to it as a garbage can, instead of supporting Harris and the rule of law and common decency. I just can't take that in. I hope the polls are wrong about this being a 'close' race. The crowds at the Harris rallies are what give me hope. But the fact that it's come to this choice, that it's even possible for some of us to have fallen so low, that disturbs me. And that is something we'll have to deal with if and when we win.
Keep up the good work, and thank you.
The key fact here is that the MAGATs are not dealing with the full spectrum of facts. Their 'information' sources have not told them of what we know.
They don't know the shooter in Butler was a registered repub. They have been programmed to believe the 1/6 indictments are "just more Dem efforts to attack Dear Leader", as are the stolen documents cases and the other two. (Business fraud, New York, and Fulton County election interference.)
And so on.
That's how they can support this neo-Hitler, they are trying to navigate L.A. using a map of Chicago. They can't figure out why the streets don't match up.
Great analogy
I missed Michelle's speech in Kamalazoo, but Morning Joe just showed clips from it. And it was stellar. I had seen Kamala's speech, but this was, dare I say it, even better. Her call to action for men has got to be broadcast more often, on as many media as it can be. And I have a few (former) friends who are going to hear from me: I will not brook their support of the evil that Kamala's opponent brings.
There is no one who is a better inspirational speaker than Michelle Obama. She is amazing and since we see Michelle so infrequently- her voice resonates with us so much. I’m glad she is on our team!!!
You can hear the whole speech on youtube, James. Its worth listening to.
She also covered a whole lot regarding women and their health than I've heard from anyone else! It was a really really great speech. Shes one tough cookie - especially after the way she was treated by naysayers during Obama's administrations.
Thanks Joyce! I am feeling so anxious and a bit depressed! It just scares me to think 50% of people in our nation are willing to vote for Trump. I am a 74 year old woman and just can’t believe this is happening in our country. Yes, I will continue to make phone calls, I have made more donations than I can afford, I have signs out front and have already voted. What more can I do? I just hope for a positive outcome!
we cannot trust the supreme court, they (6) will let us down as they are bakedin for Trumpism
Great point but what good does it do? In the end they will make the final decision. Remember 2000? They basically took a vote for Gore and singlehandedly reversed it. I expect they will at least try to do the same thing this election.
V O T E. Don’t give into their noise!
Vote like your life depends on it because it does.
And Our country & Rights will be GONE.
Without all of us voting - we lose law, order, our Rights and WE will all be even more under the Thumb of the Billionaires- the American Oligarchs.
Just like Russian Oligarchs- life under them here will not be good for anyone But THEM.
V O T E.
Thanks for all your work, Joyce. I second the suggestion of coffee and time with your chickens.
>Thanks for bearing with me through this longer-than-usual Week Ahead piece.
Are you kidding? I am so deeply grateful for your work. And for your sanity-preserving chickens 💗. A million thanks.
Thank you for this vital information. I'm confident Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are going to win this election!
Vote. Please.