The Week Ahead

October 27, 2024

In Yale Professor Timothy Snyder’s seminal handbook “On Tyranny,” an essay on how to prevent it, rule one is “Do Not Obey in Advance.” Snyder wrote that “Most of the power of authoritarianism is freely given,” as it was when Hitler came to power and Germans voluntarily surrendered their allegiance to him.

This is the week to reach out to everyone you know and urge them to vote for Kamala Harris because our collective future depends on it. It's just that simple. Yes, it gets old hearing people say this is the most important election of our lifetimes, but it is true, and the threat is very real.

We have been here before. In 1939, American Nazis held a rally at Madison Square Garden. Anne Applebaum, who writes for the Atlantic about government and authoritarianism, posted some original footage from the 1939 event, and it is worth your time. It is chilling. But the Greatest Generation didn't fall into the trap. We must not either.

Tonight Trump held a rally in Madison Square Garden with echoes of the 1939 event, although his included Hulk Hogan dancing and lawyer Alina Habba strutting a runway with a jacket slung over one shoulder. A so-called comedian referred to Puerto Rico as an “island of garbage floating around.”

An April 2021 report about the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Maria in 2017 revealed that “The administration of former President Donald Trump obstructed an investigation looking into why officials withheld about $20 billion in hurricane relief for Puerto Rico” after the devastating disaster, one of the deadliest in over 100 years. Puerto Rican rapper and singer Bad Bunny, who has more than 45 million followers on Instagram, responded with a post to his stories showing the detailed plan for Puerto Rico that Kamala Harris laid out today. It was in English with Spanish subtitles. Although Puerto Rico isn’t apportioned any Electoral College votes, Puerto Ricans who have official residency in one of the 50 states are able to vote there. They number nearly half a million in swing state Pennsylvania, for instance.

There was lots of talk about Hillary Clinton at Madison Square Garden tonight. Apparently, MAGA can’t keep up—they’re two presidential races behind. Multiple speakers, including Stephen Miller, Alina Habba, Dr. Phil, Rudy Giuliani—and JD Vance—said some variation of “they tried to kill him,” referencing the assassination attempt on the former president’s life. What none of them acknowledged was that the defendant in the Florida case who shot at Trump is a registered Republican.

It’s been fact-free night at Madison Square Garden, but then the Trump campaign is always fact-free.

I mean. You just can’t make this kind of thing up. Better off during a pandemic where approximately 1.2 million Americans lost their lives?

"America is for Americans and Americans only,” Stephen Miller said. Just so we’re all clear on that.

The New York Times ran a piece today about Americans’ skepticism about democracy. It speaks to the dysfunction we know exists in our democracy, and comes as no surprise in an era where the body politic consists of not only Trump’s base, but also of younger Americans who cannot recall the idealism of the Obama era and have only ever known the time of Trump. When we vote, we are voting for those young people as well, and I feel confident they will thank us for it down the road.

Two developments in court cases last week may take on importance for us in the week ahead.

• First, the decision in Virginia, ordering the Commonwealth to restore voters who were removed from the voter rolls within the 90-day “quiet period” in advance of the election, during which the National Voter Registration Act Of 1993 (NVRA) prohibits wholesale removal of registered voters from the rolls. But Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin jumped on Trump’s bandwagon, issuing an executive order calling for the removal of people who failed to verify their U.S. citizenship. Measures like this and the one that a court disallowed in Alabama have the effect of disenfranchising naturalized citizens. So, the court ordered Virginia to mail everyone who was removed and notify them that, if they are a U.S. citizen and otherwise meet voter qualifications, they have the right to vote.

Virginia’s governor announced there would be an immediate appeal to the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, but on Sunday, that Court was quick to slap down Virginia’s effort to appeal. This week we’ll watch to see if they try to take their case to the Supreme Court and if so, how they fare there. Note: It is still illegal in Virginia for noncitizens to vote in a presidential election and incomprehensible that anyone would take the risk of facing serious consequences including deportation, while having no possibility of impacting the outcome of the presidential election.

• Second, as I mentioned last night, the Fifth Circuit, in the Mississippi case that we took a look at here, RNC v. Wetzel, held invalid the Mississippi provision that permits ballots that are postmarked by election day to be counted so long as they are received within five business days after the election. They reasoned that Congress, which is charged in the constitution with setting the time for the election, has created an election “day” and that Mississippi’s rule runs afoul of it. The Fifth Circuit makes much ado in their opinion about how this doesn't impact early voting. It's also unlikely that it will affect late-received ballots in this election, in part because we are likely to see an appeal this week and a request to freeze the status quo given the nearness of the election.

This case, too, is likely to head up to SCOTUS. In fact, it’s likely both sides will appeal, the one to undo the decision and the other to put it into force for this election. This decision is reminiscent of the early cases post Roe v. Wade that began to chip away at women's abortion rights. Those cases started with issues like parental permission until they became a cascade that ended in Dobbs. Given Republicans’ animosity towards rules that permit Americans to vote on a day and time other than Tuesday during business hours, this feels like a first case going that direction, and it’s likely the RNC will pursue it vigorously with the future in mind. Ultimately, this rationale could be expanded to invalidate anything other than voting in person on the day of the election, which, of course, would make it more difficult for anyone who can’t put their entire life on hold to get to a designated polling place on a set day that is hardly the most convenient of times.

Also this week, the government’s final brief on presidential immunity is due Tuesday in the Special Counsel’s election interference prosecution of Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. After that, Judge Chutkan can rule on how the case will move forward, unless she decides she needs oral argument or a hearing to supplement the record. She has a lot to work through here, and I’m not expecting an immediate decision, but she is a very efficient judge and seems determined to get this case back on track after appellate delays.

Also on Tuesday, Steve Bannon will finish his 120 day sentence for contempt of Congress and be released from federal prison. One sentence in CNN’s reporting left me utterly disgusted: “Shortly after his sentence began, Bannon moved to teaching history and government civics to other inmates.” That doesn’t sound like a great idea, given what he was convicted of.

Bannon’s sentence did not include what’s called “supervised release,” involving regular meetings with a probation officer and a period of oversight following release from prison, so he will be free to resume his affairs. But he still faces a December trial in Manhattan over allegations of fraud in connection with his “We Build The Wall” fundraising efforts. Bannon was charged in 2022 with defrauding donors who thought their money was going to “build a wall” at the border. He has pleaded not guilty to charges including money laundering, being part of a scheme to defraud, and conspiracy.

After Trump gave Bannon a federal pardon, the Manhattan District Attorney launched an investigation into Bannon’s role in the conspiracy. The cofounder of the group, Brian Kolfage, was previously convicted and sentenced to four years and three months in prison for stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars from donors. Bannon’s federal pardon does not affect the state case (barring some stunning new development from the Supreme Court). Two other defendants have been convicted as well, but Bannon’s trial was delayed because of the federal case he’s just finishing serving time in.

We are in the upside down, whether it is Madison Square Garden tonight or Judge Chutkan’s courtroom in Washington D.C., where the Republican Party’s presidential candidate stands accused of trying to steal the 2020 election and his party embraces the conduct instead of reviling it. As we enter the final full week before the election, there's really only one mission and that is getting out the vote.

Polls are just polls. We know they don’t tell the whole story. Turnout is everything at this point. But there was some good news from the most recent polls this morning, and if anything, it’s a reminder that in a close election, the best thing is to make sure you’re engaging in civil discourse with every last person you can talk to about what’s at stake in this election.

Thanks for bearing with me through this longer-than-usual Week Ahead piece. There is a lot going on. And there will be a lot going on this week. I’ll try to keep in manageable while still bringing you the most important points and analysis. Like always, I appreciate the support of paid Civil Discourse subscribers. You really make it possible for me to devote the time and resources necessary to do this work. It’s not going to go away. We’ve got a Republic to save.

Were in this together,

Joyce