"Yes, the NYT dropped a new national poll today showing the election even, 43-43. But a reminder that in that other large sample, independent polls conducted in July, Biden has opened up a small lead:
"July Biden-Trump (via 538)
"Monmouth 47-40
"Quinnipiac 49-44
"YouGov/Yahoo 47-43
"Morning Consult 44-41 (new this week, Biden gained a point)
"YouGov/Economist 44-40 (Biden has been gaining this weekly track)
"Ipsos/Reuters 37-35
"So outside the NYTimes, Biden is leading by an average of 4 points in recent independent polls. A late June high-quality NBC News poll had Biden up 4, and a new AARP poll of battleground House districts also has Biden up 4."
How are the polls performed? Elderly people answer the phone and answer questions , younger than 50 years old screen calls, and are less likely to answer a poll when they are contacted. How are the questions worded? How many women are contacted, versus men? What are the educational levels of the people polled?
I think your point about who answers calls and responds to polls is correct. I've kept my landline but turned the ringer off because almost every call was spam or scam (old phone, no way to check number so I used to have an answering machine). On my cell, if I don't know the number (not in my cell phone book), I simply don't answer. So, here's one 79-year-old who isn't being polled.
Do you answer that 800 number thatтАЩs the pollster calling you? Do you have a landline they can call? Just who the hell are they polling? I used to get polled all the time and IтАЩm very familiar with phone banks. I havenтАЩt been polled in years.
From Simon Rosenberg yesterday:
"Yes, the NYT dropped a new national poll today showing the election even, 43-43. But a reminder that in that other large sample, independent polls conducted in July, Biden has opened up a small lead:
"July Biden-Trump (via 538)
"Monmouth 47-40
"Quinnipiac 49-44
"YouGov/Yahoo 47-43
"Morning Consult 44-41 (new this week, Biden gained a point)
"YouGov/Economist 44-40 (Biden has been gaining this weekly track)
"Ipsos/Reuters 37-35
"So outside the NYTimes, Biden is leading by an average of 4 points in recent independent polls. A late June high-quality NBC News poll had Biden up 4, and a new AARP poll of battleground House districts also has Biden up 4."
Only тАШpollтАЩ counts, Election Day 2024!
How are the polls performed? Elderly people answer the phone and answer questions , younger than 50 years old screen calls, and are less likely to answer a poll when they are contacted. How are the questions worded? How many women are contacted, versus men? What are the educational levels of the people polled?
I simply am not sure that the polls are accurate.
I think your point about who answers calls and responds to polls is correct. I've kept my landline but turned the ringer off because almost every call was spam or scam (old phone, no way to check number so I used to have an answering machine). On my cell, if I don't know the number (not in my cell phone book), I simply don't answer. So, here's one 79-year-old who isn't being polled.
Do you answer that 800 number thatтАЩs the pollster calling you? Do you have a landline they can call? Just who the hell are they polling? I used to get polled all the time and IтАЩm very familiar with phone banks. I havenтАЩt been polled in years.
Never in my LIFE (74 years) have I been polled for anything at all. I'm still a bit cranky about that, too.
They used to use voting rolls. They always knew what party you belonged to or which way you voted.
They still have those, they probably also know which brand of tp I use.
No sorry, accidentally responded to yours but seem unable to delete and reenter.
ThatтАЩs where I thought I was - apparently not.
Deleted and reposting