The Week Ahead

July 5, 2026

There was the alleged diversion of donors who wanted to contribute to the bipartisan celebration effort to Trump’s Freedom 250. There were allegations of a pay-to-play scheme in which donors who contributed more than $1 million were given personal access to the president. All in all, the 250th anniversary of our country felt more like a financial opportunity for Donald Trump than a celebration of the great American experiment. That’s before we even get to issues like the no-bid contract for the Reflecting Pool “renovation” that turned into a disgrace.

Americans celebrated the Semiquincentennial despite Donald Trump, not with him. He couldn’t even get the fireworks right, although the cost to taxpayers was as much as $6-7 million. Only the first minute of them—they started at 11:59 pm—actually happened on July 4. The finale wasn’t visible because it was obscured by smoke, something that fireworks experts typically plan for and work around. Trump’s celebration of Trump didn’t seem to have good karma, from 104° temperatures early in the day to the thunderstorms that delayed it, and Trump’s own insistence that it continue, without regard to the comfort of the people it was supposedly for.

The dysfunction was on brand, almost predictable. As is the week ahead in court, where the Justice Department seems willing to walk, perhaps even cross, the line with federal judges so that it can stay in Trump’s good graces, even as courts order it to take steps that will displease the president.

E. Jean Carroll

As you will recall from our discussions last week, Trump wants more time before the money he paid into the court’s fund to satisfy the judgment he owes E. Jean Carroll, now at $5 million, plus nearly an additional million in post-judgment interest, is disbursed. But the deal was clear—once the Supreme Court denied Trump certiorari, the money was supposed to be transferred to Carroll.

After the Judge in the case, Lewis Kaplan, expedited the briefing schedule, Trump opposed that too, asking for more time. But Carroll’s lawyers opposed that request, writing that Trump’s “assertion that he cannot respond to Plaintiff’s Motion on the timeline ordered by the Court appears to be little more than yet another play for time.” They concluded, “in light of Defendant’s continued gamesmanship, we believe it is only appropriate to bring certain developments to Your Honor’s attention, as they prove the wisdom of the Court’s decision to require expedited briefing and allow this case to finally come to an end.”

The Judge declined to give Trump more time on Saturday. Happy Fourth of July, Mr. President. Trump’s brief is due on Tuesday, July 7.

If Judge Kaplan orders the funds released and doesn’t stay that order, expect Trump to go to the D.C. Circuit, to ask for a stay pending appeal. If a stay is denied, the funds could be turned over to Carroll while the effort to appeal is ongoing.

But the collection issue is a sideshow to the triumph here. Trump is out of options for challenging the jury’s conclusion that as between him and Carroll, it was Trump who was lying when he said he didn’t sexually assault her in a dressing room, after she told the story of what happened. That issue has been adjudicated by a jury, and he owes her damages. Nothing he can say will change that basic fact.

Katie Phang

Did DOJ comply with the court order to turn over specified evidence in the case involving blocked items from the Epstein Files? Of course not. Instead, it asked the court for an additional two months just a few hours before it was due to release them. Claiming the need to protect victims, even though it has already revealed their identities, DOJ declined to comply with the court order.

DOJ is ignoring a court order. The Judge should act swiftly here, since there is simply no excuse. As we’ve said before, a party that doesn’t like an order can appeal it. But they can’t just ignore it.

Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward wrote that the government is “committed to transparency and compliance” but “strongly disagrees” with the court’s order in Phang’s favor.

DOJ doesn’t get to ignore court orders because it disagrees with them. It’s likely there are fireworks in store this week, even though the July Fourth holiday is over.

More

This week we’ll watch the case against Olympian David Hearn, who is charged with the very unlikely crime of damaging the Reflecting Pool—which was already damaged when he got there, since he went to look at … the damage—move forward. Hearn is charged with that most serious of federal crimes: pulling up a piece of the liner after the liner had already started to peel.

Federal prosecutors have the discretion not to charge cases where the conduct doesn’t amount to a federal felony. If ever that was true in a case, it is here. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, who failed to indict the sandwich thrower and was handed a humiliating loss in the misdemeanor case against him doesn’t seem to have learned that lesson.

The week ahead will matter. If you want clear, independent analysis grounded in experience—not hot takes—you'll find it here. Paid subscriptions help to make this work possible, and I’m very grateful for your support.

We’re in this together,

Joyce