Don't Jump to Conclusions

Violence that mars our political process, like yesterday’s assassination attempt on former President Trump’s life, is horrific and unacceptable. Full stop. Political violence is never the answer. In America, we settle those differences at the polls. That's why the Big Lie and January 6 were wrong and unAmerican. Violence is not the path forward.

But, trying to equate Democrats’ calls to defeat Trump in the election with calls for violence are wrong. They do nothing to take down the temperature in a moment when that is much needed. This is a time to stop, think, and assess. What happened yesterday was a profoundly wrong act and should be roundly condemned. But it should not be used to score political points, like Congressman Mike Collins, R-Ga., did. Much like we should condemn the violence, this effort to place blame where it is not due should be rejected too.

The shooter has been identified as 20-year old Thomas Matthew Crooks, of Bethel Park, PA. There has been some reporting that he used a rifle that his father purchased legally and that is reported to be an AK-47, gaining a high ground position overlooking Trump’s rally that he used to fire the shots that killed one person in the crowd, seriously injured two more and left Trump’s ear and face bloodied. Crooks is dead, killed by Secret Service sharpshooters.

No motive has been offered. There are some reports that he was a loner who was bullied in high school, something that has become a hallmark of shootings. Crooks reportedly had no criminal history and little social media presence, unusual for someone of his age. As has been widely reported, he was a registered Republican, but also gave a $15 donation to ActBlue in 2021.

It is unclear what to make of that information just yet. Pennsylvania has closed primaries, which means that only registered party members can participate in the Republican Party primary. Democrats sometimes cross over in primaries to vote for a Republican, but Trump’s last competitor, Nikki Haley, dropped out of the race more than a month before the primary took place. We don’t know if Crooks was a disaffected Republican, a cross over Democratic voter, a lone wolf radicalized to some political purpose, or someone with serious mental health issues and a real or imagined grudge he thought he would satisfy by killing the former president.

It is important to keep those multiple possibilities in mind and understand just how dramatically our understanding of a crime can change as the investigation proceeds. Things are not always what they appear to be, and even the early information here is susceptible of different interpretations. I have worked investigations, like the bombing of a Birmingham abortion clinic by Eric Robert Rudolph in 1998, where the evidence emerges in a nonlinear fashion and as it evolves, understanding of motive can change. So be careful not to get ahead of yourself and draw conclusions too early. Sometimes people are lone wolves acting out political agendas, but John Hinckley Jr. who tried to assassinate Ronald Reagan on March 30, 1981, did it to try and impress actress Jody Foster.

Crooks was reportedly wearing a Demolition Ranch t-shirt. Demolition Ranch is a pro-gun YouTube channel with aggressive firearms and demolition content and millions of subscribers. To give you some idea, the person who runs it posted this on Twitter in May.

Also this.

You get the idea. But again, we don’t know what, if any, connection to the group the shooter had. Its leader disclaimed any conversations with him.

Some have suggested that in one of the videos of the shooting, you can hear a woman yelling Crooks’ name and possibly asking what he’s doing. That and other information is being carefully considered by investigators, who are determining whether anyone else is involved or knew of Crooks’ plans in advance, whether there is any remaining threat. After a crime like this, the FBI, local U.S. Attorney and other state and federal law-enforcement agencies will run a command center around the clock and give periodic briefings. But don’t expect any quick revelations—they’ll keep a close hold on sensitive information to ensure they are able to investigate fully, without interference.

One issue of concern is how the shooter was able to get into a high position that was so close to where Trump was speaking, and which we’re told was outside of the Secret Service’s perimeter. One man who was nearby told a BBC reporter they were trying to alert Secret Service and other law enforcement officer to the man “bear crawling” on the roof in plain view, with a gun.

There are legitimate questions about how the shooter got so close and why agents didn’t act earlier, but again, wait for the facts. Although one map shows how close to the rally venue the rooftop the shooter was on is,

other photos suggest that agents’ view was obstructed by trees. This illustrates why it's important to wait for a full investigation to reveal the facts before rushing to judgment

In this moment, it is important for common sense and civil discourse to prevail. We can be a part of that and we should be, condemning the shooting, rejecting suggestions that it was the fault of Democrats, and encouraging folks around us to wait and see what the evidence is once investigators are able to do their jobs.

We’re in this together,

Joyce